But let's for a second say the day goes perfectly. For just the purpose of this blog, let's say the temperature maxes out the average high for that day, 75 degrees. Let's say the wind is from the south, meaning the water is calm, and the wind never exceeds a provides a lightly cooling breeze. Let's say I sleep really well the night before, and wake up with everything going perfectly smoothly leading up to the start. If all that happens, let me tell you what I think my perfect race would be like.
The Swim: This one is easy to say. My perfect swim for 2.4 miles would be 1:50. That's with time to eat a GU every half mile, and a quick stop to sight at each turn.
T1: 10 minutes. I'm going to need a few minutes to recover from the swim, and then to eat and drink, and get ready for the bike. This is the one area where I don't think I'll be any faster than this, but I won't be much slower
The Bike: My perfect ride for this right now is 7:00. There's not a ton of climbing, and we won't have all the stops we have on all our training rides slowing us down. On a windless day with strong legs, I can do this ride at 16 MPH and push the average the last 10 miles to save time for the run.
T2: 10 minutes, again. I'm going to use this time to completely change my clothes, get all sorts of anti-chafe on, and get ready for a long walk.
The Run: Well, It's mostly going to be a walk, but the perfect walk is me averaging just better than 15 minute miles for the marathon. If I can do 6:20 for the marathon, It's a great time for me.
Maybe these times don't seem all that fast to anyone else, but to me, these are my perfect times right now. 15:30 would be a time that I can hope for and shoot for, but my real goals are to finish, enjoy my day, be healthy, and get to spend some time with friends and family when it's all over.